USD/CHF recovers to 0.9670 ahead of Jackson Hole

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

A fresh bout of USD buying interest seems to have emerged during the last hour of trading, with the USD/CHF pair erasing all of its early losses to currently trade nearly unchanged from yesterday's closing level at around 0.9670-75 band.

Heading into the big event risk, the Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole symposium, traders continue to reposition as strong hawkish signals would shoot up expectations of September rate-hike and trigger a sharp bullish spike for the greenback.

Also in focus would be the preliminary release of US GDP print for Q2 2016, scheduled for release later during NA trading session.

How strong has the move been?

The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. At the time of writing, RSI is neutral at 61.67, up from 50.44 at the last hour close, while ADX is ranging at 24.47, down from 40.27 previous.

Meanwhile, daily RSI is in neutral territory at 46.49. On the hourly USD/CHF chart, the 200 SMA is climbing and currently at 0.9666, up from the previous hour close at 0.9629. On average, the exponential closing price for the past 20 days is 0.9694, with the trend indicating a continuation lower ahead.

How volatile has USD/CHF been?

2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is presently at 33 pips and shrinking on the hourly USD/CHF chart, while the ATR (14) is currently at 12 pips. 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 301 pips and shrinking on a daily chart.

Over the last four weeks, the average movement for the present session has been 12 pips per hour. Further, today’s peak period for volatility is between 12:00-13:00 GMT, which sees an average movement of 47 pips over the previous four week period.

What price levels and patterns have to be considered?

Immediate resistance ahead is pegged at 0.9677 (Weekly High), 0.9678 (Daily Open), 0.9685 (Daily High), 0.9689 (Yesterday's High) and 0.9694 (Daily 20 SMA). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.9667 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.9649 (Daily Classic S1), 0.9648 (Daily Low) and 0.9646 (Hourly 100 SMA).

Looking at price patterns, we can see a Piercing Line 1-hour candlestick formation, and a Hammer 4-hour formation.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

EUR/USD gains traction to near 1.1800 as tariff uncertainty weighs on US Dollar

The EUR/USD pair holds positive ground around 1.1795 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar weakens against the Euro amid US tariff uncertainty. The release of the US January Producer Price Index report will be in the spotlight later on Friday.

GBP/USD treads water near 1.3500 as BoE-Fed divergence debate stalls

GBP/USD spent Monday spinning in place as market participants await a fresh catalyst to break the pair out of its recent range. The BoE's February hold came with a surprisingly dovish 5-4 split, and UK Consumer Price Index data last week showed inflation easing to 3.0%, reinforcing the case for earlier rate cuts, with most economists now looking to April or March for the next move.

Gold down but not out as key $5,140 support holds

Gold consolidates the advance to monthly top of $5,250 in Tuesday’s Asian trades. The US Dollar finds demand as liquidity returns and risk sentiment recovers, despite US tariffs uncertainty. Gold defends 61.8% Fibo resistance at $5,142 amid the pullback, daily RSI remains bullish.

Top Crypto Losers: BCH, HYPE, PUMP extend losses as Bitcoin drops below $64,000

Altcoins, including Bitcoin Cash, Hyperliquid, and Pump.fun, are leading losses over the last 24 hours as Bitcoin falls below $64,000 on Tuesday. The technical outlook for BCH, HYPE, and PUMP flags downside risk amid broader market selling.

Supreme Court nixes tariffs, Trump teases 15% global tariff

On February 20th, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s global tariffs under IEEPA authority were unconstitutional, effectively nullifying the framework. However, the relief was short-lived. Within hours, Trump floated a 15% blanket tariff under an alternative legal authority.

XRP recovers slightly as bearish sentiment dominates crypto market

Ripple is rising above $1.40 at the time of writing on Monday amid fresh tariff-triggered headwinds in the broader cryptocurrency market. The sell-off to $1.33, the token’s intraday low, can be attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and risk-averse sentiment among other factors.