USD/CHF Price Forecast: Falling 20-day EMA suggests trend remains bearish

USD/CHF falls slightly to near 0.7880 as the US Dollar trades cautiously ahead of FOMC minutes.
The Fed reduced interest rates by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% this month.
USD/CHF might face more downside below 0.7830.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CHF pair trades 0.12% lower to near 0.7880 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) trades with caution ahead of the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the December meeting in the late New York session.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades subduedly near 98.00.

The impact of FOMC minutes is expected to be significant on the US Dollar, given the only major release in a thin volume trading week.

Investors will closely monitor FOMC minutes to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In the policy meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75%, and signaled that there will be only one interest rate cut in 2026.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades almost flat, with investors remaining uncertain over the monetary policy action by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in 2026.

USD/CHF technical analysis

In the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.7884. Spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which slopes lower at 0.7940, keeping the downside bias intact. The descending average continues to cap rebounds across recent sessions.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.63 remains below 50, signaling weak momentum after a modest bounce from earlier readings.

Bias stays bearish while price trades under the moving average, which could push the pair lower to near the multi-year low of 0.7830.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Why it matters to traders?

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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