|

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Oscillates around the 20-day EMA as the pair tilts upward

  • USD/CHF halts its downtrend and bounces off a daily low of 0.8940, charting its course near the crucial 20-day EMA at 0.8964.
  • Market mood tilts as the pair’s technical outlook transitions from a neutral-to-downward bias to neutral, possibly tilting neutral-upward once it reclaims the April 10 daily high of 0.9120.
  • For bearish persistence, USD/CHF must pierce the 20-day EMA, potentially exposing the May 22 low of 0.8940 and setting the stage for a potential plunge towards 0.8926.

USD/CHF stalled its downtrend after piercing the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.8964 and reached a daily low of 0.8940, but bounced off and closed Monday’s session nearby last Friday’s low at 0.8993. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8980, almost flat, as Tuesday’s Asian session begins.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a daily chart perspective, the USD/CHF shifted from neutral-to-downward biased to neutral. In early May, the USD/CHF pair reached a new year-to-date (YTD) low of 0.8820; since then, USD/CHF climbed 1.80%, registering on its way up, successive series of new highs-lows, but shy of turning the pair neutral-to-upward biased.

 If USD/CHF reclaims the April 10 daily high of 0.9120, that could shift the bias to neutral-upwards, and it might open the door for a rally above the 100-day EMA At 0.9136 before reaching the April 3 high at 0.9196. Upside risks for the USD/CHF lie above 0.9200, with the 200-day EMA at 0.9271 as the only resistance to changing the pair’s bias upwards.

The USD/CHF must fall below the 20-day EMA at 0.8964 for a bearish continuation. A breach of the latter will expose the May 22 low of 0.8940 before clearing the path for the pair towards June 9, 2021, a low of 0.8926, ahead of the 0.8900 figure.

USD/CHF Price Action – Daily chart

USD/CHF Daily chart

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price0.8981
Today Daily Change-0.0013
Today Daily Change %-0.14
Today daily open0.8994
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.8933
Daily SMA500.9034
Daily SMA1000.9151
Daily SMA2000.9403
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.9059
Previous Daily Low0.8975
Previous Weekly High0.9063
Previous Weekly Low0.892
Previous Monthly High0.9198
Previous Monthly Low0.8852
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.9007
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.9027
Daily Pivot Point S10.896
Daily Pivot Point S20.8925
Daily Pivot Point S30.8876
Daily Pivot Point R10.9044
Daily Pivot Point R20.9093
Daily Pivot Point R30.9128

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD sticks to neutral bias above 0.7100 amid cautious markets

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar stalls its modest pullback from the highest level since late July amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties. The PBOC status quo on Loan Prime Rates also weighs on the Aussie. However, bets on another RBA rate hike continue to underpin the Australian Dollar ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit.

USD/JPY eases below 157.00 amid looming intervention risks

USD/JPY is easing back below 157.00 in Asia on Monday, undermined by modest Japanese Yen strength amid looming intervention risks after Friday's BoJ rate check. A Japanese holiday also keeps traders on edge amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East. As a result, the US Dollar pauses its pullback, limiting the pair's downside.

Gold remains depressed around $4,350 amid rate jitters, modest USD strength

Gold maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session, and currently trades around $4,350, down over 0.50% for the day. The commodity, however, holds comfortably above a six-week low, touched last Wednesday as traders await further developments around the Middle East crisis and their implications for inflation. This, in turn, would influence interest rate expectations and, in turn, drive the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin hits $85,000 for the first time in eight months
Bitcoin price reclaims $85,000 on Monday, advancing last week’s 5% recovery toward an eight-month high. The recovery in King Crypto aligns with renewed institutional demand, with Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording $433 million in inflows on Friday.
The week ahead: Fuel prices in focus as we lead up to key eco releases

Financial markets are in a strange position as we move to the final weeks of Q3, uncertainty and volatility continue to grip markets, but the oil price is falling; and European and US stocks are poised to open higher later on Monday. Market stresses are concentrated in sovereign bonds, and European and US yields had another scare late on Friday, and moved higher.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.