USD/CHF climbs above 0.8450 as traders brace for US PCE data

USD/CHF holds positive ground near 0.8485 in Friday’s early European session, up 0.32% on the day.
The SNB cut the interest rates by 25 bps, bringing its policy rate to 1.00% at its September meeting on Thursday.
Fed’s Cook said she 'wholeheartedly' backed rate cut.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The USD/CHF pair attracts some buyers to around 0.8485 on Friday during the early European session. The Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reduced interest rates on Thursday. All eyes will be on the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which is due later on Friday.

The Swiss central bank decided to cut the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), bringing its policy rate to 1.00%, the lowest level since early 2023. Goldman Sachs analysts noted the SNB cut on Thursday was supported by lower inflationary pressure, driven by a stronger CHF and other factors, and they expect a further 25 bps reduction at the December meeting, citing its dovish guidance and new inflation projections.

The better-than-estimated US economic data on Thursday have provided some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the CHF. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 21 rose to 218K, up from the previous week's 222K (revised from 219K). The figure came in below the initial consensus of 225K. Meanwhile, US Durable Goods Orders were flat in August, compared to a rise of 9.9% in July, stronger than the expectation of a decline of 2.6%.

Nonetheless, the dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and rising bets of Fed rate reduction in the coming months could cap the upside for the USD. Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated on Thursday that she "wholeheartedly" supported the central bank's decision to cut interest rates by 50 bps, calling it an important step in maintaining the path to "moderate" economic growth.

SNB FAQs

What is the Swiss National Bank?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.

How does the Swiss National Bank interest-rate policy affect the Swiss Franc?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Does the Swiss National Bank intervene in the forex market?

Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.

When does the Swiss National Bank Governing Council decide on monetary policy?

The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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