USD/CHF bounces off lows near the 0.8100 zone, tariffs eyed

USD/CHF drops to the vicinity of 0.8100 and rebounds.
The demand for the safe-haven space underpins the Swiss franc.
Attention now shifts to the release of the US Producer Prices.

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

China’s fresh round of tariffs bolsters CHF, hits USD

On Friday, Beijing dramatically ramped up tariffs on US imports to 125%, striking back at President Trump's move to hike duties on Chinese goods to 145%. This countermeasure has ramped up the tension in a trade war that now threatens to upend global supply chains.

That said, investors continue to seek refuge in the safe-haven space, lending extra legs to the Swiss currency and prompting the pair to retreat to the 0.8100 neighbourhood for the first time sin September 2011.

Meanwhile, US stagflation fears have been picking up pace strongly in the past few days, hurting the Greenback and triggering a steep correction in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The bearish tone in the US Dollar has been also propped up after investors’ repricing of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, especially after US CPI data came in below consensus in March.

What’s next

Later, traders will be keeping a close eye on US inflation figures, as the March Producer Prices take centre stage. At the same time, the preliminary release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment gauge will also attract plenty of attention—especially its inflation component, which often offers early clues about consumer spending and pricing pressures.

The day so far

Earlier on Friday, Switzerland’s Consumer Climate worsened slightly to -35 in March, according to SECO.

Key levels on the technical picture

Next on the downside for USD/CHF comes the 2025 floor at 0.8109 (April 11). The loss of this level could open the door to the 0.8000 round level, prior to the September 2011 low at 0.7710 (September 2).

On the upside, the next relevant level comes at the 200-day SMA at 0.8787, ahead of the weekly top of 0.8809 (March 14).

The pair trades within severe oversold conditions around 18, which could spark a probable technical uptick in the not-so-distant future.

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

The week ahead: Dollar at a crossroads as CPI and ECB take centre stage

With the summer finally over, investors returned with a strong appetite for action. Following last week’s strong performance, the US dollar has taken a back seat so far this week, as oil, the yen and sovereign bond yields monopolized market interest.

CFTC report: Oil rebound offsets broader positioning retreat

The week in one sentence: Speculative positioning became more defensive in the week ending September 1. Yen short positioning recorded the largest deterioration, while Gold length also retreated. Oil buying returned alongside stronger prices, and Canadian Dollar and Euro positioning improved, although Euro flows diverged from weaker spot prices.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.