|

USD/CAD remains capped under the 1.3500 mark, all eyes on US PCE data

  • USD/CAD drifts lower to 1.3472 amid the modest USD decline.
  • US GDP expanded at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, stronger than expected. 
  • A rise in oil prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions might lift the commodity-linked Loonie. 

The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory for the second consecutive day during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) for December, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will be a closely watched event on Friday. At press time, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3472, losing 0.01% on the day.

The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US economy grew stronger than expected in the final three months of 2023. The Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to 4.9% in the previous reading. In response to the upbeat data, US Treasury yields edged lower. The markets continued to reflect the Fed's chances to begin its first-rate cuts in May. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a March cut stand at 47.4%. 

Additionally, the Labor Department showed that the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 20 totaled 214,000 from 189,000 in the previous week, worse than the market expectation of 200,000. Continuing Claims rose to 1.833 million from the previous reading of 1.806 million. 

On the Loonie front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its key overnight rate at 5.0% on Wednesday, keeping its benchmark the same for the fourth time in a row. Despite that potential shift in message from how high to how long, the BoC is not saying interest rates will be lower soon, given continued concern about inflation.

Meanwhile, the higher oil prices due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea might boost the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).

Market players will keep an eye on the December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) on Friday. Also, the Pending Home Sales will be released. These data could give a clear direction to the USD/CAD pair.

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price1.3476
Today Daily Change0.0003
Today Daily Change %0.02
Today daily open1.3473
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.3408
Daily SMA501.3461
Daily SMA1001.356
Daily SMA2001.3482
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.3535
Previous Daily Low1.3473
Previous Weekly High1.3542
Previous Weekly Low1.3382
Previous Monthly High1.362
Previous Monthly Low1.3178
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.3497
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.3511
Daily Pivot Point S11.3453
Daily Pivot Point S21.3432
Daily Pivot Point S31.3391
Daily Pivot Point R11.3514
Daily Pivot Point R21.3555
Daily Pivot Point R31.3576

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

More from Lallalit Srijandorn
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD remains offered; bears target 1.3600

GBP/USD now leaves behind part of its recent recovery and revisits the low 1.3600s at the beginning of the week. Indeed, Cable trades with a mild downward bias amid decent gains in the Greenback as investors remain wary of upcoming US data releases and the Jackson Hole event.

EUR/USD remains sidelined above 1.1650

EUR/USD trades on the defensive following the closing bell on Wall Street on Monday, hovering around the 1.1660 region and adding to Friday’s small decline. The pair’s pullback comes in response to an acceptable rebound in the US Dollar in a context of generalised caution ahead of key US data releases and Chair Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole.

Gold advances to over three-month high as bulls look to reclaim $4,700

Gold climbs to a fresh high since mid-May, with bulls now eyeing $4,700 and extending the rally witnessed since the beginning of this month. The US Treasury's bond market intervention failure fuels concerns about fiscal sustainability and boosts demand for bullion as an alternative store of value. Moreover, the US Dollar struggles to attract any meaningful buyers, which, along with receding bets for an immediate Fed rate hike, continues to benefit the non-yielding yellow metal.

XRP surged 72%, but is the rally really about XRP?
Ripple (XRP) surged more than 72% in less than a week, its strongest rally since July 2025, as cryptocurrency prices broadly broke out. But the move has a problem: it may have little to do with XRP itself. The token's near-term rally appears to have been driven largely by a broader liquidity shift after the US Treasury expanded long-end bond buybacks, pulling yields lower and lifting risk assets.
Convulsion in credit markets
The United States government just posted a $432.3 billion deficit for July, the largest monthly shortfall since March of 2021. That single burst of red ink pushed the yeartodate deficit to $1.8 trillion, with two months still remaining in fiscal 2026. At this pace, Washington will soon wax nostalgic for the “good old days” when annual deficits were only $2 trillion.
$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.