USD/CAD remains capped under the 1.3500 mark, all eyes on US PCE data

  • USD/CAD drifts lower to 1.3472 amid the modest USD decline.
  • US GDP expanded at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, stronger than expected. 
  • A rise in oil prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions might lift the commodity-linked Loonie. 

The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory for the second consecutive day during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) for December, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will be a closely watched event on Friday. At press time, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3472, losing 0.01% on the day.

The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the US economy grew stronger than expected in the final three months of 2023. The Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to 4.9% in the previous reading. In response to the upbeat data, US Treasury yields edged lower. The markets continued to reflect the Fed's chances to begin its first-rate cuts in May. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a March cut stand at 47.4%. 

Additionally, the Labor Department showed that the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 20 totaled 214,000 from 189,000 in the previous week, worse than the market expectation of 200,000. Continuing Claims rose to 1.833 million from the previous reading of 1.806 million. 

On the Loonie front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its key overnight rate at 5.0% on Wednesday, keeping its benchmark the same for the fourth time in a row. Despite that potential shift in message from how high to how long, the BoC is not saying interest rates will be lower soon, given continued concern about inflation.

Meanwhile, the higher oil prices due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea might boost the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).

Market players will keep an eye on the December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) on Friday. Also, the Pending Home Sales will be released. These data could give a clear direction to the USD/CAD pair.



Today last price 1.3476
Today Daily Change 0.0003
Today Daily Change % 0.02
Today daily open 1.3473
Daily SMA20 1.3408
Daily SMA50 1.3461
Daily SMA100 1.356
Daily SMA200 1.3482
Previous Daily High 1.3535
Previous Daily Low 1.3473
Previous Weekly High 1.3542
Previous Weekly Low 1.3382
Previous Monthly High 1.362
Previous Monthly Low 1.3178
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3497
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3511
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3453
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3432
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3391
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3514
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3555
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3576



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