USD/CAD refreshes multi-year lows, bears await sustained break below 1.2100 mark

USD/CAD dropped to the lowest level since September 2017 during the early European session.
A modest uptick in the US bond yields benefitted the USD and extended some support to the pair.
Hawkish BoC outlook, bullish oil prices underpinned the loonie and capped any meaningful upside.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair reversed an early European session dip to sub-1.2100 level, or fresh multi-year lows and was last seen trading with only modest losses, around the 1.2110-15 region.

The pair continued with its struggle to register any meaningful recovery and remained depressed through the first half of the trading action on Monday. The Canadian dollar remained well supported by a more hawkish Bank of Canada decision to bring forward the guidance for the first interest rate hike to the second half of 2022. Apart from this, a bullish gap opening in crude oil prices further underpinned the commodity-linked loonie and dragged the USD/CAD pair to the lowest level since September 2017.

The negative factor, to some extent, was offset by a modest uptick, which helped limit any further losses for the USD/CAD pair, at least for now. As investors looked past Friday's dismal NFP report, a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields assisted the USD to stage a modest rebound from more than two-month lows. That said, expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates low for a longer period might continue to act as a headwind for the USD. This, in turn, should continue to cap the upside for the USD/CAD pair.

The fundamental backdrop remains tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established downward trajectory. That said, extremely oversold RSI (14) on the daily chart warrants some near-term consolidation before the next leg down. This, in turn, warrants some caution before placing fresh bearish bets amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases, either from the US or Canada.

Technical levels to watch

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.2111
Today Daily Change	-0.0016
Today Daily Change %	-0.13
Today daily open	1.2127

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2406
Daily SMA50	1.2504
Daily SMA100	1.2617
Daily SMA200	1.2874

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2194
Previous Daily Low	1.2122
Previous Weekly High	1.2352
Previous Weekly Low	1.2122
Previous Monthly High	1.2654
Previous Monthly Low	1.2266
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.215
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2167
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2102
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2076
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.203
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2173
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2219
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2245

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY drops to an over one-month low, around 156.00 after Japan's CPI report

USD/JPY attracts heavy follow-through selling on Friday, dropping to the 156.00 neighborhood, a one-month low, as Japan's National CPI report reaffirms bets for an imminent BoJ rate hike and boosts the Japanese Yen. Moreover, the recent steep fall in US bond yields counters hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical risks, undermining the US Dollar and exerting additional pressure on the currency pair.

Gold seems vulnerable near August lows; eyes $4,000 break amid Fed hike bets

Gold touches a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday, eyeing the key $4,000 psychological mark. Oil-driven inflation fears reinforce December Fed hike bets and continue to undermine the non-yielding bullion, which fails to benefit from the recent steep fall in US bond yields and the prevailing US Dollar selling bias. Moreover, the overnight breakdown below a trading-range support backs the case for further depreciation.

Bitcoin falls 4% as chip stocks plunge 6.7% and oil surges

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $82,000 on Thursday as the crypto market joined a broader market sell-off driven by concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) spending, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran. The top crypto fell 4% to $81,130 as macro fears weighed on prices across the digital asset market.

The Bank of England just got its clearest reason to hike. Here's what it's really watching

UK inflation as measured by the CPI accelerated to 3.5% YoY in September, up from 3.1% in August, according to the Office for National Statistics. This is the highest level since October 2025, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.4% and pushing inflation further from the BoE's 2% target.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.