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USD/CAD pulls away from lows as oil loses traction, trades near 1.3140

  • Declining OPEC output weighs on crude oil prices.
  • US Dollar Index clings to small daily gains above 98.
  • Canadian GDP growth in May beats expectations, attention turns to FOMC.

The USD/CAD pair came under modest bearish pressure during the American trading hours and slumped to its lowest level in more than a week at 1.3106 as the Loonie capitalized on the upbeat growth data from Canada and rising crude oil prices. However, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate reversing its course in the last hour and turning negative on the day, the commodity-related CAD lost its strength, allowing the USD/CAD pair to turn flan on the day near 1.3140 handle.

Crude oil prices fluctuate on Wednesday

The weekly data published by the Energy Information Administration today showed that crude oil stocks in the US declined by 8.5 million barrels per day in the week ending July to provide the initial boost to crude oil prices, which faded away quickly. Later in the day, the latest Reuters survey revealed that OPEC's oil output slumped to its lowest level since 2011 in July to help the WTI limit its losses. As of writing, the WTI was posting small daily losses at $58.20.

In the meantime, Statistics Canada today reported that the real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada expanded by 0.2% in May to beat the market expectation of 0.1%.

FOMC set to announce a 25 bps rate cut

Later in the session, the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and will release its policy statement. Previewing the event, "We expect the FOMC to lower the federal funds target rate (FFTR) by 25bps in July. We also see a growing prospect of a second 25bps rate cut in September (instead of December, our current forecast)," said Standard Chartered analysts.

"We expect the description of the US economic situation in July’s statement to be broadly similar to that in the June statement.”

FOMC Preview: What 12 major banks are expecting from July meeting?

Technical levels to watch for

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price1.3143
Today Daily Change-0.0007
Today Daily Change %-0.05
Today daily open1.315
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.3096
Daily SMA501.3233
Daily SMA1001.3314
Daily SMA2001.3304
Levels
Previous Daily High1.3194
Previous Daily Low1.3143
Previous Weekly High1.32
Previous Weekly Low1.3041
Previous Monthly High1.3529
Previous Monthly Low1.306
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.3163
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.3174
Daily Pivot Point S11.3132
Daily Pivot Point S21.3112
Daily Pivot Point S31.3082
Daily Pivot Point R11.3182
Daily Pivot Point R21.3213
Daily Pivot Point R31.3232

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

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