USD/CAD Price Forecast: Stives to hold crucial 20-day EMA

USD/CAD falls to near 1.3675 as the US Dollar declines after Trump’s SOTU address before Congress.
US President Trump criticizes the Supreme Court for invalidating his tariff policy.
Investors await the outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair is down 0.16% to near 1.3675 during the early European trading session on Wednesday. The Loonie pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD), following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address before Congress earlier in the day.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% to near 97.67, giving up its entire Tuesday’s gains.

US President Trump didn’t provide any cues regarding the outlook on the tariff policy, but criticized the Supreme Court for ruling against them. Trump applauded his tariff policy for the economic turnaround, and stated that they will substantially replace the system of income tax.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades broadly stable ahead of nuclear talks between the US and Iran on Thursday. The outcome will have a significant impact on the oil price. The CAD is highly sensitive to changes in the oil price, given that the Canadian economy is the largest exporter of oil to the US.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USD/CAD trades lower at around 1.3675 as of writing. The pair holds a mild bullish bias as it stabilizes just above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average near 1.3670, keeping price action aligned with the broader upswing that started from the mid-1.34s. The price could extend towards the January 23 high around 1.3800 if it breaks above the January 27 high of 1.3740.

Initial support aligns with the 20-day EMA at 1.3671, while a daily close back beneath the average would leave the pair vulnerable to downside towards the February 13 low around 1.3600.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a muted momentum.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

President Trump speech

Donald J. Trump is the 47th and current President of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. He became president for the first time in January 2017, representing the Republican party. His second mandate started in January 2025.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200 after hot Chinese CPI data

AUD/USD is extending its consolidative price action above 0.7200 during the Asian session on Wednesday, uninspired by hot Chinese CPI and PPI data. Meanwhile, rising RBA rate-hike bets act as a tailwind for the Aussie amid Yen-inspired US Dollar weakness. Traders await the release of US inflation figures later in the week for fresh impetus.

USD/JPY rises above 153.50 on renewed USD strength

USD/JPY shakes off the bearish pressure and trades above 153.50 in the American session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) stages a rebound following the US Treasury buyback announcement and helps the pair gain traction. Nevertheless, solid Japanese data reinforce expectations that the BoJ will continue normalising monetary policy, lending further support to the Yen and capping the pair's upside for now.

Gold regains balance above $4,400

Gold rebounds on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak and reclaiming the are beyond the key $4,400 mark per troy ounce. The precious metal’s bounce comes amid further selling pressure on the US Dollar and steady uncertainty on the geopolitical front.

XRP extends recovery as ETF inflows, futures interest stabilize

Ripple (XRP) ticks higher, trading at $1.42 on Wednesday while building on a recently confirmed support range between $1.30 and $1.35. The token also sits above major moving averages, reinforcing the bullish outlook. However, upside could remain capped unless the psychological barriers at $1.50 and $1.70 are cleared, paving the way for an extended recovery above $2.00.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.