USD/CAD Price Forecast: Stives to hold crucial 20-day EMA

USD/CAD falls to near 1.3675 as the US Dollar declines after Trump’s SOTU address before Congress.
US President Trump criticizes the Supreme Court for invalidating his tariff policy.
Investors await the outcome of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair is down 0.16% to near 1.3675 during the early European trading session on Wednesday. The Loonie pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD), following United States (US) President Donald Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address before Congress earlier in the day.

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% to near 97.67, giving up its entire Tuesday’s gains.

US President Trump didn’t provide any cues regarding the outlook on the tariff policy, but criticized the Supreme Court for ruling against them. Trump applauded his tariff policy for the economic turnaround, and stated that they will substantially replace the system of income tax.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades broadly stable ahead of nuclear talks between the US and Iran on Thursday. The outcome will have a significant impact on the oil price. The CAD is highly sensitive to changes in the oil price, given that the Canadian economy is the largest exporter of oil to the US.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USD/CAD trades lower at around 1.3675 as of writing. The pair holds a mild bullish bias as it stabilizes just above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average near 1.3670, keeping price action aligned with the broader upswing that started from the mid-1.34s. The price could extend towards the January 23 high around 1.3800 if it breaks above the January 27 high of 1.3740.

Initial support aligns with the 20-day EMA at 1.3671, while a daily close back beneath the average would leave the pair vulnerable to downside towards the February 13 low around 1.3600.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a muted momentum.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

President Trump speech

Donald J. Trump is the 47th and current President of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. He became president for the first time in January 2017, representing the Republican party. His second mandate started in January 2025.

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