USD/CAD Price Analysis: More downside seems solid below 1.3370 on upbeat oil price and Canada’s job data

USD/CAD is eyeing more weakness below 1.3370 as Canada’s upbeat job data might force the BoC to reconsider the policy pause.
Firmer oil prices and an upbeat Canada’s job market have supported the Canadian Dollar.
US President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday to talk about the looming debt ceiling crisis.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair has found an intermediate cushion after a massive sell-off to near 1.3370 in the early Asian session. The Loonie asset is expected to extend its downside journey as oil prices have strengthened further on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its policy-tightening spell and strong Canada’s labor market data renewed fears of more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

As per Canada’s labor market report (April), Net Change in Employment landed at 41.4K vs. the estimates of 20K. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.0% from the expectations of 5.1%. Annual Average Hourly Earnings remained steady at 5.2%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown some recovery around 101.20 as US President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders on Tuesday to talk about the looming debt ceiling crisis.

USD/CAD is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern on a daily scale, which indicates sheer contraction in volatility followed by an expansion in the same. The downward-sloping trendline of the aforementioned chart pattern is plotted from 10 October 2022 high at 1.3978 while the upward-sloping trendline is placed from 15 November 2022 low at 1.3226.

Broadly, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3500 is overlapping the Loonie price, indicating a decline in volatility.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has dropped marginally below the bearish range of 20.00-40.00 and sustenance below the same would accelerate bearish momentum.

Going forward, a breakdown below the previous week’s low at 1.3371 will drag the asset toward April 17 low at 1.3343 followed by the round-level support at 1.3300.

On the flip side, a recovery move above April 10 high at 1.3554 will drive the Loonie asset towards January 05 high at 1.3595. A breach of the latter will drive the asset toward April 26 high at 1.3651.

USD/CAD daily chart

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.338
Today Daily Change	0.0006
Today Daily Change %	0.04
Today daily open	1.3374

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3502
Daily SMA50	1.3585
Daily SMA100	1.3524
Daily SMA200	1.3446

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3542
Previous Daily Low	1.3371
Previous Weekly High	1.3639
Previous Weekly Low	1.3371
Previous Monthly High	1.3668
Previous Monthly Low	1.3301
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.3436
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3476
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3317
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3259
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3146
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3487
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3599
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3657

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD consolidates near 0.7000 as USD stays weak

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during Thursday’s Asian session, consolidating the previous day’s recovery gains from a near three-week low as the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections and Iran diplomacy hopes continue to weigh on the US Dollar. Bulls, however, seem hesitant as focus shifts to Friday’s crucial US NFP report.

USD/JPY drifts lower to 158.25 on hawkish BoJ Minutes, weak USD

USD/JPY trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Thursday as hawkish BoJ Minutes, showing members agreed to keep raising rates, and intervention risks support the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, US midterm election results and hopes for Iran diplomacy keep the US Dollar depressed as focus shifts to Friday’s US NFP report.

Gold eases from two-week top; holds comfortably above $4,100

Gold retreats slightly from a two-week high touched during Thursday’s Asian session, albeit it clings to gains for the second straight day and currently trades around $4,130. The US Dollar extends the fallout from US election results, dropping to a fresh low since late September and assisting the commodity in building on the previous day's strong rally of over 3.5% – its biggest single-day rise since mid-August.

TRUMP token hits record low amid mounting selling pressure

Ripple and Stellar extend their recovery as bearish pressure begins to ease for both altcoins. XRP trades above $1.30 after breaking above the upper trendline of a falling channel pattern, while XLM holds above $0.168 and approaches resistance at $0.173. Meanwhile, improving derivatives metrics and strengthening momentum indicators hint at a potential for further recovery.

BoE expected to hike interest rate to 4.00%

The Bank of England is set to reveal its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday, coinciding with its seventh rate-setting meeting of 2026. Market analysts expect the ‘Old Lady’ to increase its policy rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.00%, the highest level since November 2025.

US Dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress

The US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.5% to trade near 101.35 after sliding below the 101.50 level. The Greenback retreats to its lowest level in four weeks as investors reassess the political and economic outlook following the Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the United States (US) midterm elections.