- USD/CAD trades in positive territory near 1.3855 in Friday’s early Asian session.
- US S&P Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.3 in May, stronger than expected.
- Lower crude oil prices could weigh on the commodity-linked Loonie.
The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains around 1.3855, snapping the four-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) due to the stronger-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.
Data released by S&P on Thursday showed that US Global Composite PMI rose to 52.1 in May's flash estimate from 50.6 in April. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.3 in May from 50.2 in Sprli, while the Services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8. The Greenback strengthens against the CAD in an immediate reaction to the upbeat PMI data.
Additionally, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 17 dropped to 227K, compared to the previous week of 229K, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This reading came in below the market consensus of 230K. Continuing Jobless Claims went up 36K to reach 1.903M for the week ending May 10.
A fall in Crude Oil prices could weigh on the commodity-linked Loonie. It’s worth noting that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, and lower crude oil prices tend to have a negative impact on the CAD value.
Later on Friday, traders will keep an eye on the Canadian Retail Sales data for April, which is expected to show an increase of 0.7%. In case of stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Canadian Dollar and create a headwind for the pair
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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