|

USD/CAD aims to build cushion around 1.3300 as oil price plunges, Fed policy hogs limelight

  • USD/CAD is building a firmer cushion around 1.330 amid sheer weakness in the oil price.
  • The US labor market might not remain tight enough as opportunities are declining amid a bleak economic outlook.
  • The rising oil supply from Russia at discounted prices to Asia triggered volatility in the oil price.

The USD/CAD pair gauges an intermediate cushion around 1.3300 in the early Asian session. Despite the upbeat market mood, the Loonie asset is showing signs of exhaustion in the downside trend. A sheer fall in the oil price was driven by weaker demand projections in the United States due to the expectations of an upcoming fresh interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been auctioning inside the woods from the past few trading sessions amid ambiguity in the market sentiment on a broader note. The upside in the USD Index is capped around 101.80, while the downside is supported near 101.20.

S&P500 settled January last week on a positive note despite softening demand as reported by the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (Dec) data. Corporate earnings are being impacted by declining retail demand but are delighted by the Federal Reserve (Fed) as it adds to the downside filters for inflation.

This week, the primary catalyst that will keep investors uneasy is the interest rate decision by the Fed on Wednesday. As per the CME FedWatch tool, Fed chair Jerome Powell might increase interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50-4.75%. But before that, the release of the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data will remain in focus. The economic data is seen at 86K, significantly lower than the former release of 235K. Labor demand is softening dramatically as firms have paused their recruitment process due to the bleak economic outlook.

On the oil front, investors dumped the oil price late Friday after Reuters reported that Russia’s oil loadings from its Baltic ports were set to rise by 50% in January from December levels to address the strong demand coming from Asia. Russian oil supply is accelerating despite the sanctions by the Western cartel. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading oil exporter to the United States, and lower oil prices impact the Canadian Dollar.

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price1.3313
Today Daily Change0.0001
Today Daily Change %0.01
Today daily open1.3312
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.3433
Daily SMA501.3503
Daily SMA1001.3525
Daily SMA2001.3208
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.3347
Previous Daily Low1.33
Previous Weekly High1.3428
Previous Weekly Low1.33
Previous Monthly High1.3705
Previous Monthly Low1.3385
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.3318
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.3329
Daily Pivot Point S11.3293
Daily Pivot Point S21.3273
Daily Pivot Point S31.3246
Daily Pivot Point R11.3339
Daily Pivot Point R21.3366
Daily Pivot Point R31.3385

Author

Sagar Dua

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

More from Sagar Dua
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD retreats toward 1.1700 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD stays under mild bearish pressure and trades below 1.1750 on Friday. Although trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, the modest recovery seen in the US Dollar causes the pair to edge lower. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases.

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, stabilizes near 1.3450

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades marginally lower on the day at around 1.3450 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold climbs toward $4,400 following deep correction

Gold advances toward $4,400 and gains more than 1.5% on the day after suffering heavy losses amid profit-taking heading into the end of the year. Growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy and persistent geopolitical risks seem to be helping XAU/USD stretch higher.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).