USD: Banking sector risks to dictate FX moves – MUFG

Worsening market conditions will continue to favor the Japanese Yen, point out analysts at Rabobank. They see that banking sector strains are set to persist.

Banking risks in focus but FX moves contained

“After sustained selling of the US dollar, we are now seeing evidence of a turnaround as fears wider scale banking sector problems pick up. We have highlighted one supportive factor for EUR/USD as being the relative resilience of euro-zone banks compared to the US highlighted by the outperformance of the Euro Stoxx 600 Bank Index which is currently around unchanged on a year-to-date basis compared to more than a 20% drop for the S&P 500 equivalent.”

“Given the plunge in global yields on the back of this ongoing banking sector crisis the yen remains the most consistent performer highlighting the re-emergence of the yen’s more traditional safe-haven characteristics. We expect that to continue.”

“If confidence in European banks continues to deteriorate it seems highly likely that the correction lower in EUR/USD could have further to go. Furthermore, the broader the crisis of confidence becomes, the greater the implications for global growth and hence the higher-beta G10 FX will also suffer and the recent resilience of AUD and NZD could well start to give way.”

“The renewed banking sector risks evident in Europe today underline the potential for liquidity problems in the banking sector morphing into credit problems for sectors of the real economy. A worsening backdrop will continue to benefit the yen which remains the best performing currency in March. While this might not be a repeat of 2008 it may well rhyme in many ways.”