Clara Leonard, FX Strategist at BNP Paribas, suggests that in a global reflation context, the USD and SEK are likely to outperform commodity bloc currencies such as the CAD and AUD.
“The impact of global reflation on commodity currencies should be relatively modest for now. Australia, Canada and Norway continue to grow below potential, and their central banks could thus be more reluctant to start their tightening cycles in the near term.”
“We remain positioned for a long-term USD rise via a 9m dual digital USDJPY up and EURUSD down, as well as a 9-month AUDUSD risk reversal. We are also positioned for SEK upside via a EURSEK ratio put spread (28 April 2017 expiry).”