After US President Trump signed a plan to impose 25% tariffs on USD 60bn worth of Chinese products, Chinese export volumes could take a hit of USD 35bn, explains the research team at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“The tariffs are expected to hurt the US as well, since US high-tech corporates and retailers have their products assembled in China to benefit from cheap Chinese labour.”

“China has few options to retaliate with tariffs without shooting itself in the foot. A large share of US goods shipped to Mainland China consists of necessity imports, such as medicine, (medical) instruments and soybeans.”

“Ironically, the trade ties between the US and the EU are much more susceptible to protectionist measures, with cars, electronic equipment and aircrafts (equipment) being the most vulnerable sectors. While Trump’s aim is not to provoke a trade war with Europe, things could spiral out of control. Integration of supply chains is limited, while there are alternatives for a substantial share of current imports.”

“While seeking exemptions from US steel and aluminium tariffs, it will be difficult for the EU to fully comply with the US demands to step up defence spending due to the massive costs involved.”

“At the current juncture, it is very difficult to predict how things will develop over the next weeks. However, in broad terms the recent string of events indicates that further escalation of trade hampering actions is more likely than we anticipated before.”

“If trade tensions escalate, we currently foresee two outcomes: one where Europe cooperates with the US and one where Europe alienates from the US. These two scenarios could have significant negative implications for world trade and the global economy. We deem cooperation between US-EU towards China currently as more realistic than the other way around.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD extends slide toward mid-1.0200s after US data

EUR/USD extends slide toward mid-1.0200s after US data

EUR/USD continues to decline toward 1.0250 during the American trading hours on Friday. After the data published by the UOM showed that the long-run inflation outlook rose to 3% in August from 2.9% in July, the dollar gathered strength against its rivals, weighing on the pair.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD pushes lower 1.2100 on broad dollar strength

GBP/USD pushes lower 1.2100 on broad dollar strength

GBP/USD is trading deep in negative territory near 1.2100 during the American session on Friday. With the UoM's Consumer Sentiment Survey pointing to a modest increase in the long-run inflation outlook, the US Dollar Index extended its rally, reflecting a broad dollar strength.

GBP/USD News

Gold clings to modest gains above $1,790

Gold clings to modest gains above $1,790

Gold stays relatively resilient on Friday and trades modestly higher on the day above $1,790. Although the greenback continues to outperform its rivals on the latest US data, falling US Treasury bond yields help XAU/USD hold in positive territory.

Gold News

Shiba Inu ready to go ballistic: Shiba Eternity released in Vietnam

Shiba Inu ready to go ballistic: Shiba Eternity released in Vietnam

Shytoshi Kusama, the project leader of Shiba Inu announced the launch of Shiba Eternity for Vietnamese players. The game is available for testing and the team has asked users for their review. 

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!

BECOME PREMIUM

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures