US stocks downplay Iran retaliation concerns as indices edge higher

Despite the US bombing three nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend, the early pullback has given way to gains across all the major US equity indices on Monday. By lunchtime, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had gained 0.16%; the S&P, 0.34%; and the NASDAQ, 0.43%.

The risk-on sentiment contrasts heavily with deep concerns on Sunday of Iranian retaliation, sending equity futures lower at that time. Now, speculation is that Iran might hold off on a counterattack and instead continue pummeling that country since it started the war with a unilateral air attack on June 13.

"In terms of what this all means for markets going forward, it's really all about whether the Iranian regime weaponizes oil, and in particular whether they seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, where over 20% of the world's oil flows daily," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said in a client note after the US attack.

Though Iran's parliament has approved a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where Saudi and other Gulf nations transport their Oil, it has yet to do so. WTI Oil has ticked down less than 1% to $73.37 at the time of writing.

US stock market news

The US equity market is also being helped by economic data at the start of the week. Both S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Existing Home Sales data arrived better than expected on Monday.

While the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI stayed put at 52, it was better than the 51 consensus. Likewise, while the S&P Global Services PMI ticked down to 53.1 from 53.7, it was still better than the 52.9 consensus.

The Existing Home Sales Change for May rose 0.8% despite the -1.3% consensus and April's decline.

Also of help to rising share prices was a speech by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Michelle Bowman, who stated on Monday that she is in favor of an interest rate cut as soon as the July central bank meeting. Bowman is now the second voting member to suggest earlier cuts, following Friday's admission from Christopher Waller.

Boeing (BA) gained more than 1% on Monday after initial evidence from the June 12 crash of Air India Flight 171 demonstrated that the GE Aerospace (GE) engine may have been at fault rather than any direct Boeing system.

IBM (IBM) stock gained over 1.6% on Monday in what seems to be follow-through from last week's spate of positive news items. IBM has committed to building a next generation quantum computer in New York state, and Wedbush Securities raised its price target from $300 to $325, citing the company's $6 billion in generative AI bookings.

Tesla (TSLA) stock has surged over 10% after beginning robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas on Sunday.

S&P500 daily index chart