US: Second print of Q1 GDP will be closely monitored - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that while revisions to GDP rarely garner much attention, the second print of Q1 GDP will be closely monitored following the abysmal 0.5% print in April.

Key Quotes

“With the recent hawkish rhetoric from Fed and stronger economic data a precursor to a second hike, a significant upward revision would help to improve confidence in a June/July move. TD is currently calling for an above consensus 1.1% (market: 0.9%), though we still believe that the Fed will remain sidelined until September. Taking a backseat to GDP will be the final print for University of Michigan Sentiment. TD expects to see an upward revision from 95.8 to 96.4; the market is more downbeat and expects consumer confidence to slip to 95.4.

Looking to the Fed, Janet Yellen will give a public address at Harvard at 1315 EST. Yellen is being honoured for her “transformative impact on society” and therefore is unlikely to address current policy in her remarks (she is schedule to speak at an industry event on June 6 which is more likely to be used to signal for the upcoming FOMC meeting). However, there will be a Q&A period so there remains a risk that she makes reference to the economic outlook or monetary policy.”