US retail sales to post 0.8% m-o-m growth for December - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura note that despite the holiday shopping season, US retail sales growth was weaker than expected in November, advancing only by 0.1% m-o-m.

Key Quotes

“Core retail sales, which are an input into our GDP tracking model, grew slowly by 0.1% m-o-m with a downward revision to a prior month.”

“We expect core (“control”) retail sales to rebound in December. The ISM nonmanufacturing business activity index was steadily elevated at 57.2, indicating that business activity in the nonmanufacturing sector continued to expand. In addition, we expect a steady gain in payrolls in the core retail sector, as the latest ADP employment report suggested healthy gains in payrolls in the service providing sector. Taking these factors into account, we forecast core retail sales increased by 0.5% m-o-m in the month.” 

“On noncore components, we think that sales for motor vehicles and parts rebounded modestly in December from a decline in November as vehicle sales outperformed expectations. Moreover, gasoline prices grew strongly in December, which likely boosted nominal sales at gasoline stations. As such, we expect retail sales excluding autos to have advanced 0.7% m-o-m. With autos, we forecast 0.8% m-o-m growth for total retail sales.”