US: Retail sales, consumer confidence and Yellen speech in focus – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that US retail sales and consumer confidence in addition to the Yellen’s speech will be amongst the market movers for the day.

Key Quotes

“Today in the US, the retail sales figures for September are due out. While growth in core retail sales (control group) was strong in Q2, it was slightly negative in both July and August. It is the first time there has been negative growth for two successive months post crisis. In September, we estimate core retail sales increased 0.4% m/m. Even though 0.4% m/m is quite strong looking at a single month, it will still leave the average monthly growth rate in Q3 below 0.1% m/m, which is a weak signal for Q3 GDP growth. We estimate total (advance) retail sales increased 0.8% m/m in September, due mainly to increasing vehicle sales and higher gasoline prices.

Later today in the US, the preliminary consumer confidence figures from the University of Michigan for October are due out and we expect it to stay in its current range. In September, both the Michigan and the Conference Board measures of consumer confidence increased, highlighting that consumers are still optimistic.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak today. Yellen is likely to speak about monetary policy and our focus will be on whether she is more hawkish than at the press conference, where she sounded more dovish than in the FOMC statement.

UK construction output in August is due out today. It will be interesting as construction seems to be the sector hit the most by Brexit. Note though that the output data is very volatile on a monthly basis so it may be difficult to interpret.”