US: Key reports for next week - Danske Bank

According to analysts from Danske Bank, next week in the US, the most important event will the first GDP reading of the third quarter. 

Key Quotes: 

“The first estimate of Q3 GDP growth is due on Friday. Overall, we estimate GDP growth was around 2.0% q/q AR in Q3, which is not strong taking into account the disappointing growth rates in the three previous quarters. Also, it is much lower than previously expected.  We estimate private consumption growth slowed markedly in Q3 (compared with the strong Q2 growth above 4% q/q AR) despite strong car sales, as retail sales have been weak.”

“The week also brings the preliminary Markit PMIs for October. As the ISM manufacturing index has jumped up and down over the past two months, it is hard to tell the true story about the manufacturing sector based on this index. Hence, focus is on the less volatile Markit PMI manufacturing index (due on Monday), as it might tell a clearer story.”

“On Thursday, we are die to get preliminary capital goods orders for September. It remains a concern to us that shipments of core capital goods continued to move lower in August, even though new orders rose in July. As new orders also rose in August, we will be interested to see whether shipments rose in September, which would be a sign that business investments have finally hit bottom.” 

“Only a few FOMC members are scheduled to speak in the beginning of the week, as we now enter the blackout period before the FOMC meeting, which concludes on 2 November. The most important one is James Bullard (voter, dovish), who speaks on Monday, as we have not heard from him in a while.”