US: Key economic events ahead – Barclays

The Barclays Research Team offers key insights on today’s key US economic data releases due on the cards from 1330 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“Durable goods: Working from available forward-looking indicators such as the October ISM, we forecast that headline durable goods orders will move down 3.8% m/m in October on the heels of September's 0.7% m/m increase. This decrease is mostly concentrated in the volatile transportation categories, as we forecast that ex-transportation orders will rebound to a 0.4% m/m increase following a slight decline in September.

Existing home sales: We expect existing home sales to have decreased 0.5% m/m (-6.8% y /y), bringing the total level of sales to 5.12mn. Existing home sales have been declining since April, and we expect this weakness to extend to the October report. 

UoM consumer sentiment: We expect the final estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment to edge a touch lower to 98.0 (from 98.3). That said, even at this level, the index would remain consistent with the broadly positive sentiment.”