|

USD/CHF keeps trading around 0.7700 with markets at half throttle

  • USD/CHF edges up from lows but remains trading sideways around 0.7700.
  • Weak inflation figures in the US and Switzerland leave the pair looking for direction.
  • Swiss Franc's strength is boosting speculation about an SNB intervention.


The US Dollar (USD) posts moderate gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday, reaching the 0.7700 area at the time of writing. The pair, however,  remains trapped within a narrow range, broadly between 0.7650 and 0.7730, with most Asian markets closed and the US in a long weekend due to the President’s Day holiday.

In Switzerland, Consumer Prices Index data released on Friday failed to support the Swissie. Consumer Inflation contracted 0.1% in January against expectations of a flat reading, mainly driven by the dropping import prices amid the Swiss Franc’s strength

Year-on-year, the CPI advanced 0.1%, in line with market expectations, although steady at the lower end of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0% to 2% range of price stability.

SNB intervention looming

The CHF has rallied nearly 3% against the US Dollar so far in 2026, after appreciating beyond 12% in the previous year. The Swiss Franc’s strength is putting into question the SNB's inflation forecasts, and speculation about an intervention to stem CHF strength is on the rise. This might warn speculative investors from placing larger CHF longs for some time.

The US Dollar, however, keeps consolidating near lows against its main peers. US consumer inflation data shows a 0.2% rise in January, below the 0.3% expected, while year-on-year, prices moderated to 2.4%, from 2.7% in December, undershooting the 2.5% reading anticipated by the market.

These figures give some leeway to the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, to boost the labour market’s recovery, which is weighing on a steady US Dollar recovery.

(This story was corrected on February 16 at 13:00 GMT to say that the Swiss CPI contracted 0.1% in January, and not in December, as previously stated, and that the CPI was 2.7% in December, and not in November.)

SNB FAQs

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.

The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

More from Guillermo Alcala
Share:

Editor's Picks

British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data

The British Pound is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day. Weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing data added pressure on the Pound, which rallied at the Asian session opening, amid news of a halt to the hostilities in Iran.

EUR/USD remains under pressure; looks at 1.1500 on firm US ISM

EUR/USD now accelerates its downtrend and trades in the low 1.1500s on the back of the marginal improvement in the US Dollar, all in the wake of solid US ISM Manufacturing data on Wednesday. The Greenback, in the meantime, remains far from a sustainable rebound in the current context of cooling geopolitical tensions.

Gold remains supported near $4,000

Gold adds to Friday’s pullback, although it remains well underpinned by the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce on Monday. The US Dollar’s inconclusive price action seems enough to cap the yellow metal’s potential upside, although renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading expectations of a Fed rate hike could limit the Greenback’s recovery.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

The Bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes
Once a goldmine for carry traders, Bitcoin futures have flipped, consistently underperforming plain‑vanilla U.S. Treasuries every month since February. Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting Bitcoin futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).
9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.