|

US inflation expectations refresh five-week low

US inflation expectations can be held responsible for the market’s latest dislike for the US Dollar, after fueling the Greenback to the multi-day high in the last week.

That said, the inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, reverse Friday’s corrective bounce while declining to the fresh lows in five weeks.

It should be noted that the 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations per the aforementioned calculations fall to 2.21% and 2.30% at the latest.

It’s worth observing that the Fed officials’ inability to please markets with a major hawkish surprise can join the latest weakness in the US inflation clues to weigh on the US Treasury bond yields and the Greenback.

However, the cautious mood ahead of today’s US Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence Index for August, expected at 116.2 versus prior 117.00, will prod the Greenback and the markets. Above all, major attention will be given to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for July and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for August.

Also read: Forex Today: US Dollar weakens slightly as risk sentiment improves

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week
Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.
CFTC Report: Defensive currency positioning takes hold
The week in one sentence: Sterling and Euro shorts deepened in the week to September 22, while Yen longs were cut sharply. Oil positioning improved despite a steep price decline, and Gold exposure remained crowded. The main signal was a more defensive currency positioning backdrop.
Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.