US: GDP, trade data and FOMC Minutes in focus this week - BBH

The analysts at BBH points out that there are three US economic data points in the week ahead and first amongst them is the estimate for Q1 GDP, which is expected to be revised up, perhaps to almost 1.0% from 0.7%.  

Key Quotes

“It will not change the disappointment, but we note that during this expansion growth in the January-March period has averaged 1.1% annualized.  Second, details about April merchandise trade, inventories, and durable goods orders will help shape expectations for Q2 GDP.  The New York Fed GDP tracker rose 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%.  As of May 16, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow was tracking 4.1% for Q2 up from 3.6% on May 12.”

“Third, the minutes from the FOMC meeting earlier this month will be released.  The meeting itself was a non-event.  The FOMC statement was little changed but clearly looked through the recent soft economic data.  The minutes are not some objective recording of what was said.  They must be understood as a communication tool.  However, the market understands the message that the FOMC sees its objectives sufficiently close to allow it to continue to normalize monetary policy, and soon to reduce the balance sheet.  While anything the Fed reveals about the evolution of its thinking on its balance sheet strategy will be scrutinized by market participants, its deliberative style and the apparent lack of urgency suggests little fresh information is likely yet.”