According to analysts at TD Securities, for the US economy, residual seasonality continues to be a lingering factor in first and second quarter GDP data.

Key Quotes

“Despite a recent effort by the Bureau of Economic Analysis aimed at addressing this shortcoming, studies suggest seasonality effects are still persistent in the seasonally-adjusted growth figures.”

“According to recent research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, residual seasonality reduces GDP growth in the first quarter by -0.6pp on average, while it boosts the second quarter by 0.5pp. These results largely match what has been evident in the data in recent years.”

“This pattern suggests some lingering residual seasonality could affect the upcoming release of Q1 GDP data (out on 26 April). Nowcast estimates suggest Q1 GDP growth might exceed 2%, despite a number of uncertainties at the beginning of the year. We forecast GDP growth to print 2.3% in Q1.”

“If this forecast holds, then Q2 GDP growth might not be as strong as some market participants have been expecting, given a negative relationship between quarters. However, we could well end up with more of a "goldilocks" scenario in which GDP grows at or above potential in both quarters.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Looks south after the weakest weekly close since May 2017

EUR/USD is on the defensive, having closed at 1.1089 on Friday, the weakest weekly close since May 2017. The daily chart shows the pair repeatedly faced rejection above 1.1230.


GBP/USD: On the bids to 1.2160 after latest US/UK headlines

GBP/USD rises after the UK government turns down pessimistic predictions in the Yellowhammer report. The latest statements from the US President Donald Trump add to the strength.


USD/JPY: Bears taking back charge, awaits Jackson Hole

USD/JPY is seen losing ground on the 106 handle amid the latest trade-negative comments from the US President Trump's that offset the risk-on action in the Asian equities and rallying Treasury yields. 


Gold gives back territory towards a 23.6% retracement

Gold prices were a touch lower by the end of the week, falling -0.68% having travelled between a high of $1,528.00 to a low of $1,503.87, ending the NY session around $1,513. 

Gold News

Week Ahead: Jackson Hole, FOMC minutes & recession fear

There is some Deja vu to this backdrop, its basically a continuation of last week but with some big new developments. This was the worst week of 2019 for equities.

Read more