US Elections: Betting markets give the electoral vote edge to Biden – TDS

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Recent opinion polls continue showing that Trump is significantly trailing rival Joe Biden in polls conducted after the debate and around the president's positive coronavirus test. The vice-presidential debate is the next significant event of the campaign, strategists at TD Securities inform.

More – US Elections: Time runs short for Trump to reverse the trend – Standard Chartered

Key quotes

“Joe Biden added to his lead over President Trump in polling data after a contentious first debate. Some early polls also suggest that his support increased following news of the President contracting COVID-19. Biden's advantage in national polling is now 8.0pp, up from 7.3pp last week and 7.1pp at end-August. At the state level, Georgia is now polling in Biden's favor after tilting toward Trump previously. Biden also gained ground in PA and FL, but lost some edge in OH, IA and TX.

“Betting markets also reflected Biden's momentum, with most battleground states registering gains for Biden over the past week. Most notably, Florida and North Carolina shifted to ‘leaning Biden’ from ‘leaning Trump’.”

“Betting odds continue to indicate a Democrat majority in both chambers of Congress, with Dems now on track to flip five seats in the Senate (the IA race has shifted to Dems), while losing one seat. Democrats are also expected to add to their majority in the House.”

“The key upcoming event will be the Vice Presidential debate on 7 October.”

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