A month before election day, Biden’s lead remains consistently solid, rising marginally in rolling average of polls whereas outside of average of polls, some of the most recent results show a record double-digit lead for Biden. Meanwhile, Electoral College projections are similar to early September: Biden leads but still many toss-up states. Trump’s recent COVID-19 diagnosis introduced further volatility into a tense campaign, as per Standard Chartered.
Key quotes
“Four weeks before election day on 3 November and Biden’s lead in the US presidential race remains strong: average national polls show him leading Trump by 8ppt, similar to early September. In terms of the Electoral College, the projections are very similar, with Biden projected to win 279 votes against Trump’s 125. So, even if Biden were to lose the 134 still-too-close-to-call electoral votes from battleground states, he would still have more than the 270 needed to win.”
“The most dramatic piece of news of the recent campaign has been Trump testing positive for COVID-19 on 1 October. The consequences for the campaign are still very unclear. The most immediate consequence is Trump’s inability to hold campaign rallies as well as fundraiser events – his campaign is notably trailing Biden’s in terms of funding. Should the president become unable to exercise his daily presidential duties, VP Mike Pence would take over, under the 25th amendment. Should the president still be physically unfit by election day on 3 November, things could get complicated.”
“Problematically, millions of Americans have already cast their votes. And so the likelihood would be that the presidential election – which is unlikely to be postponed – would go ahead with the same names on the ballot, and a decision on a Republican candidate would need to be made between 3 November – election day – and 14 December, the day the Electoral College convenes. The legalities of all these various scenarios would likely be disputed and the situation could get complicated. For now, the Trump campaign’s latest declarations foresee the president coming back to the race sooner, rather than later.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.