US: Durable goods likely fell 2.0% in August - RBS

Research Team at RBS, forecasts that new orders for durable goods fell 2.0% in August.

Key Quotes

“Industry data point to a large decline in the civilian aircraft orders component in August (after a surge in July). There may have also been a moderate decline in defense orders. In the other direction, we expect a modest rise in the motor vehicle parts orders component after a drop in July (related data in the industrial production report showed a similar swing in motor vehicles and parts output).

More generally, we expect little change away from the transportation and defense components, with orders excluding aircraft and defense only slipping by 0.5% on the month. Moreover, we forecast that core capital goods orders (a key proxy for business spending) paused in August after modest gains in the prior two months because there are a number of signals that manufacturing activity remains in a rut.”