US Dollar Index to resume its trend higher towards the five-year range at 102/102.50 – Credit Suisse

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains in a consolidation phase following its impressive run higher. Still, economists at Credit Suisse stay bullish for a move to the top of the five-year range at 102/102.50.

DXY needs to hold support at 98.73/42 to avoid a near-term top

“Whilst we have concerns regarding momentum our bias remains, for now, to view this as a temporary pause ahead of a resumption of the core uptrend in due course to the 78.6% retracement of the 2020/2021 fall at 100.00/04 and eventually the top of the five-year range at 102.00/102.50.”

“Key for the DXY is a cluster of supports including its recent lows and 55-day average at 98.73/42. This needs to hold to maintain the current range for a move back to 99.42 and then 100.00/04.” 

“Below 98.73/42 would see a top established to suggest the USD can retrace lower through the early phase of Q2 with support seen next at the uptrend at 98.26, with the ‘measured top objective’ at 96.05/00, where we would start to look for a fresh floor.”