US Dollar Index slides to near 98.00 on Israel-Iran ceasefire, Fed’s dovish comments
- The US Dollar Index falls sharply to near 98.00 as easing geopolitical tensions have diminished its safe-haven demand.
- US President Trump urged Israel and Iran not to violate the ceasefire agreement.
- Fed’s Bowman shows openness for reducing interest rates in the July meeting.
The US Dollar (USD) underperforms its major peers during European trading hours on Tuesday as its safe-haven demand has diminished significantly, following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Theoretically, easing geopolitical tensions reduce demand for safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar.
At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of currencies, falls sharply to near 98.00 from the two-week high of 99.40 posted on Monday.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.28% | -0.45% | -0.77% | -0.14% | -0.81% | -0.90% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | 0.28% | -0.20% | -0.51% | 0.13% | -0.52% | -1.06% | 0.29% | |
| GBP | 0.45% | 0.20% | -0.32% | 0.34% | -0.32% | -0.85% | 0.34% | |
| JPY | 0.77% | 0.51% | 0.32% | 0.63% | -0.09% | -0.17% | 0.65% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.13% | -0.34% | -0.63% | -0.68% | -1.19% | 0.00% | |
| AUD | 0.81% | 0.52% | 0.32% | 0.09% | 0.68% | -0.54% | 0.67% | |
| NZD | 0.90% | 1.06% | 0.85% | 0.17% | 1.19% | 0.54% | 1.21% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | -0.29% | -0.34% | -0.65% | -0.01% | -0.67% | -1.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
During the European trading session, United States (US) President Donald Trump stated in a post on Truth.Social that both Israel and Iran have agreed to a truce and urged them not to violate. “The ceasefire is now in effect. Please do not violate it!" Trump wrote.
The aerial war between Israel and Iran has stopped on its 12th day, which started after Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) launched airstrikes on Iran to stop Tehran from building nuclear warheads. During the period, the US also joined Israel’s assault on Iran and dismantled Tehran’s three nuclear facilities.
Another reason that is contributing to weakness in the US Dollar is a dramatic shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ stance on the monetary policy outlook. A few Fed policymakers have argued in favor of reducing interest rates in the July policy meeting, citing downside risks to labor market and limited impact of tariffs on inflation imposed by Washington since the return of US President Trump to the White House.
On Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated that she is “open to cut interest rates as soon as in the July policy meeting amid growing concerns over job market”. “It is time to consider adjusting the policy rate, and we [Fed] should put more weight on downside risks to the job market going forward,” Bowman said.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for May, which will be released on Friday.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
