US Dollar Index flirts with the 200-day SMA around 92.60

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), keeps business in the area of yearly highs around 92.70 on Thursday.

US Dollar Index looks to data

The index advances for the third consecutive session and manages to record fresh 2021 peaks in the 92.70 region, always against the backdrop of the persistent buying interest surrounding the buck.

In fact, while bets of another pandemic wave in Euroland hurt the sentiment around the euro, prospects of a stronger dollar remain underpinned by the outperformance of the US economy vs its global peers and the solid pace of the vaccine rollout.

Against this, yields of the US 10-year reference keep navigating a consolidative range above the 1.60% level for the time being.

Later in the US data space, the final Q4 GDP figures are due seconded by usual weekly Initial Claims and the speech by FOMC’s R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish).

What to look for around USD

The greenback manages well to extend further the breakout of the 92.00 mark and clinches new tops around 92.70, surpassing the critical 200-day SMA at the same time. The recently approved fiscal stimulus package adds to the ongoing outperformance of the US economy narrative as well as the investors’ perception of higher inflation in the next months, all morphing into extra oxygen for the buck. However, the mega-accommodative stance from the Fed (until “substantial further progress” in inflation and employment is made) and hopes of a strong global economic recovery remain an omnipresent source of support for the risk complex and carry the potential to contain the upside momentum in the dollar.

Key events in the US this week: Final Q4 GDP, Initial Claims (Thursday) – February’s PCE, Personal Income/Spending, final U-Mich Index (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Could US fiscal stimulus lead to overheating? Future of the Republican party post-Trump acquittal.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the index is gaining 0.10% at 92.62 and a breakout of 92.69 (2021 high Mar.25) would expose 93.00 (round level) and finally 94.30 (monthly high Nov.4). On the other hand, the next support is located at 91.30 (weekly low Mar.18) seconded by 91.05 (high Feb.17) and then 91.02 (50-day SMA).