US Dollar Index drifting lower to 96.70 ahead of US CPI


  • The index losses further momentum and drops to 96.70/65.
  • Yields of the US 10-year note tested 2.70% in early trade.
  • US January CPI next of relevance in the docket.

The continuation of the recovery in the risk-associated universe is forcing the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a basket of its main rivals, to recede further and re-visit the 96.70/65 band ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.

US Dollar Index looks to data, trade

After recording fresh yearly tops around 97.20 on Tuesday, the index came under increasing selling pressure in response to rising optimism over a positive outcome from the US-China trade talks.

In this regard, an extension of the 90-day truce deadline appears likely according to market consensus. In addition, a probable agreement regarding the US budget has also bolstered the sentiment, all in detriment of the buck.

Moving forward, US inflation figures gauged by the CPI for the month of January will be the salient event along with speeches by FOMC’s Bostic and Harker and the weekly report on US crude oil supplies by the EIA.

What to look for around USD

Further optimism around the US-China trade talks and positive news from the US political arena has been collaborating with the recovery in the riskier assets. On another direction, weakness in overseas economies (vs. solid US fundamentals) plus G10 central banks apparently entering a ‘wait-and-see’ mode have been sustaining the upbeat momentum in the greenback as of late, while there is still a high degree of scepticism regarding the likeliness that the Fed’s tightening cycle could end any time soon.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.03% at 96.67 facing the next support at 96.41 (55-day SMA) followed by 96.22 (38.2% Fibo of the September-December up move) and then 96.18 (21-day SMA). On the flip side, a break above 97.20 (2019 high Feb.12) would aim for 97.71 (2018 high Dec.14) and finally 97.87 (monthly high Jun.20 2017).

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