US Dollar comes up for air and eyes 106.00

The US Dollar is up after data showed that the US Services industry activity unexpectedly rose in November leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may lift interest rates more than recently projected. DXY, an index that measures the US Dollar vs. the greenback is back into the 105 area following a rise from the lows of the November bearish cycle of 104.11.

The data helped to encourage a flight to safety after an injection of investor enthusiasm over signs of possible loosening in COVID restrictions in China faded. Renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve may not be able to pivot as soon as December is driving the forex board at the start of this week. 

 US major indexes ended in the red which is a bearish setup for Tokyo today due to the concerns that the US Federal Reserve might continue on its aggressive policy tightening path despite fears of a recession next year. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.5 last month from 54.4 in October, indicating that the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, remained resilient in the face of rising interest rates. The data beat forecast the Non-manufacturing PMI would fall to 53.1.

When combined with the end of last week's data and the surprisingly strong Nonfarm Payrolls, wage growth and consumer spending that had accelerated in October, the US Dollar is set to benefit. Before the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the market pricing of the terminal rate was seen topping out at 4.75%-5%. However, the Fed is now seen raising its policy rate, currently in the 3.75%-4% range, to 4.92% by March of next year and more likely than not into the 5%-5.25% range by May, based on futures contract prices and the CME Fed watch tool.

With all that being said, however, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the US central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases "as soon as December." Futures contracts tied to the Fed policy rate still imply a 70% chance that central bankers will slow the pace of rate hikes when they meet Dec. 13-14, rather than adding to a string of 75-basis-point rate hikes over the past four meetings.

US Dollar bears will be keeping an eye out for any follow-through in risk appetite on the back of several cities easing their COVID restrictions in China in what appears to be a shift toward gradual reopening as the country nears entering the fourth year of the pandemic. However, despite the partial relaxation, many restrictions remain in place. In some parts of China, new lockdowns and travel restrictions are still being imposed.

US Dollar technical analysis

The Greenback is on the back side of the daily trendline and the downside is favoured while below 108.00. A retest of 106.00 could be in order in the meantime, however.