US Core PCE Preview: USD momentum to gather traction on an upside print – OCBC


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Economists at OCBC Bank analyze how the release of the US Core PCE Price Index could impact the Dollar. 

Potential rising wedge pattern forming

“Markets await the release of Core PCE. Expectations are now skewed towards a sequential rebound in January, judging from the pick-up in US CPI and PPI last week. An upside print could see USD momentum gather traction, but a downside surprise should see a pause in hawkish Fed repricing and recent USD gains can take a breather.”

“Bullish momentum on daily chart remains intact while RSI is rising towards near overbought conditions. Potential rising wedge pattern forming – this is typically associated with a bearish reversal. We won’t rule out near term pullback in DXY.” 

“Support at 104.10 (23.6% fibo retracement Sep peak to Feb low), 103.30 (21, 50-DMAs).”

“Resistance at 104.90/105.20 levels before 105.60 (year’s high).

See – US Core PCE Preview: Forecasts from eight major banks, meaningful acceleration

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