AUD/USD: Positive AUD theme despite fading risk – BNY

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage flags AUD/USD as another Dollar-positive rebalancing candidate. While AUD has seen mostly net buying since late January, inflows have been light and positioning less stretched than in other carry or hard-asset currencies. The broader AUD-positive story is supported by the RBA’s policy pivot and solid wage and capex data, even if some AUD/USD fading is likely.

Light positioning and RBA pivot support AUD

"AUDUSD is another candidate: the pair has enjoyed a majority of net purchase days since the latter half of January but has been less consistent than SGD."

"Furthermore, the inflow magnitudes have been light, meaning the combined positioning in AUD is not as strong as in some other “carry” or “hard-asset” currencies in Latin America."

"Nonetheless, the net purchase phase is also quite clear and is also supported by the RBA’s policy pivot."

"We suspect that much of the interest in AUD is also being undertaken on a cross basis, versus liquid but lower-yielding names such as EUR and CAD, so some recent AUDUSD fading won’t impact a broader positive theme for AUD in FX markets."

"Australia’s average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults rose to $2,051 in November 2025, up 2.0% from $2010 in May 2025 (six-month growth)."

"Australia’s Q4 2025 private new capital expenditure rose 0.4% q/q (seasonally adjusted) and 7.8% y/y."

"Nonetheless, the figures remain robust relative to the inflation target and support the need for ongoing RBA vigilance, even if recent commentary from Governor Michele Bullock point to some skepticism over aggressive pricing."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)