Next week, the economic calendar for the US includes housing data, Consumer Sentiment Index, PMIs and the Durable Goods Orders report. Analysts at Danske Bank expect core capex data to come out slightly weaker, but Markit PMI to remain largely unchanged.
“We have a quiet week in front of us in terms of data releases. On Thursday, preliminary Markit PMIs for October are released. The September PMIs sent a signal of modest GDP growth (see chart to the right). The Empire manufacturing index and the Markit PMI orders-inventory balance suggest stronger PMI manufacturing in October, but the global slowdown points to a weaker print. We expect manufacturing PMI to remain broadly unchanged. We and others have been caught by surprise by the sharp fall also in Markit PMI services. Unfortunately we do not have good indicators forecasting the service index but expect it to remain above 50.”
“Thursday also brings core capex data for September. So far core capex has been holding up despite weak soft indicators, but we expect the coming releases to come in slightly weaker.”
“Saturday, the Fed enters its blackout period, so it is unable to change signals before the 30 October meeting.”
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