Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, suggests that the recent UK political developments have prompted them to revise their Brexit-related probabilities with the most likely outcome according to our probability tree is no-deal (48%), ahead of a deal (32%) and remain (20%).
“These are conditional end-state probabilities and are dependent on the following assumptions:
- We now think the prospect of a delay beyond 31 October is highly likely (80%), while the probability of a deal being reached (10%) or the UK leaving without a deal (10%) by this date are low-risk events.
- We assume an extension request will be accepted by the EU. Following this, we assume an early general election (GE) will be called, most likely for late November/early December.
- Based on recent polling, we think the Conservative party has a c.40% chance of winning a majority and being returned to government, most likely resulting in a no-deal outcome. A Labour-led government (either a majority or in an electoral pact) also has a 40% chance of coming to power and would most likely opt for a second referendum. We attach a 20% probability to either a hung parliament or minority Conservative government.
- Given these electoral probabilities, we view the prospect of a no-deal (40%) and a second referendum (40%) by end-January 2020 as high, while there would still be a small prospect of a deal being reached with the EU (20%).
- If a second referendum is called, we think Remain (60%) would have an advantage over both leave options – deal (20%) and no-deal (20%).”
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