UK: Orderly exit from the EU - RBS

After 18 months’ negotiations, UK and EU officials finally reached agreement on the text – all 585 pages of it – of a draft Withdrawal Agreement and if ratified by both sides, this dense legal document would serve as the rulebook underpinning an orderly exit from the EU on 29 March 2019, explains the research team at The Royal Bank of Scotland. 

Key Quotes

“Alongside a c£39bn financial settlement and guarantees for citizens’ rights to live and work unimpeded, it provides for a 21 month transition period during which the UK would remain a member of the EU in all but name and voting rights.”

“Freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and people, along with all EU law, would continue until at least December 2020, giving businesses short-term certainty whilst an agreement on future relations is thrashed-out. In the event that no agreement on future relations is reached by 2020, the transition may be extended and/or a backstop arrangement for avoiding a hard border in Ireland would establish a single UK-EU customs territory covering all goods, with the exception of fish – binding the UK close to the EU for years to come.”

“To come into effect, the Withdrawal Agreement must be approved by the UK Parliament and a majority of EU member states. The EU side looks likely to give the go-ahead at a special European Council summit on 25th November, whilst the UK government is expected to schedule a Parliamentary vote in mid-December.”

“Although there are real doubts around whether MPs will support the Withdrawal Agreement, rejection would not make ‘no deal’ Brexit inevitable. In the event of defeat, government may well call a second vote, hopeful that added pressure from financial markets is enough to get the Agreement over the line. Meanwhile, MPs are likely to attempt to instruct government to request an extension to the Article 50 period to allow a common position to emerge.”