UK: Opinion polling still tight, but momentum is against Brexit – ABN AMRO

Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that the market focus on opinion polling will increase with another referendum on EU membership becoming more likely.

Key Quotes

“Current polling on EU membership remains tight, although it has shifted towards Remain particularly since it became clear what PM May’s Brexit deal would entail. For most of 2018, Remain had an average 4 point lead, ranging from 0-6 points ahead.”

“While momentum behind Remain has clearly increased – corroborated by other polling which shows Leavers are having more regrets over their vote – we note that such polling leads were also evident in the run up to the last referendum.”

“As such, a Remain victory in a new referendum is by no means a foregone conclusion, and much would still depend on how the respective campaigns are managed.”


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