Analysts at Danske Bank present a preview of next week economic reports from the UK.
“In the UK next week, we have several important data releases coming up. On Tuesday, we are due to get the jobs report for June. We estimate the unemployment rate (3M average) fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, as the single-month figure needs to make a big jump for it not to fall, given it fell to 4.0% in May. Average weekly earnings have risen quite stably at 0.2% m/m for quite some time and we believe the trend continued in June.”
“CPI inflation for July is due out on Wednesday. In general, we believe the inflation prints will be interesting to follow in H2 18, as we believe the Bank of England is too optimistic on the inflation outlook. We estimate CPI inflation fell to 2.3% y/y from 2.4% y/y in June.”
“Less important in our view is the release of retail sales for July on Thursday but markets have a tendency to react to this figure. Unfortunately, the number is quite volatile and not a good indicator of private consumption as measured in GDP.”
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