|

UK ILO Unemployment Rate edges higher to 3.9% in March vs. 3.8% expected

  • The British Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rises to 3.9% in the three months to March.
  • UK Claimant Count Change came in at 46.7K in April.
  • The UK wages excluding bonuses rose 6.7% YoY in March, less than the 6.8% expected.

The latest data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday that the United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 3.9% in the quarter to March from the 3.8% registered in the three months to February, above the 3.8% expected. This is the highest reading in more than a year, and signals that the UK labor market is gradually cooling down.

The claimant count change also showed an unexpected increase. The number of people claiming jobless benefits jumped by 46.7K in April, compared with an expected 10.8K decline and after a 26.5K increase the previous month.

The UK’s average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, arrived at 6.7% 3Mo/YoY in March versus 6.6% prior and 6.8% expected. The gauge including bonuses came in at 5.8% 3Mo/YoY in the third month of the year versus 5.8% previous and 5.1% expected.

Key points (via ONS)

UK vacancies fell by 55,000 in three months to April.

UK economic inactivity rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points on the quarter to 21.0% in Q1.

UK LFS unemployment +60k to 1.329 mln 3m/3m in Q1.

The UK Minister for Employment, Guy Opperman MP told FXStreet: "We're continuing to see progress in the labour market as we take action across government to grow the economy. Employment is up; economic inactivity is down; and vacancies have fallen in successive quarters.”

"As well as helping deliver on our priority to grow the economy, we know that being in work remains the best way for people to get on in life. That's why I'm focused on matching jobseekers with roles, and businesses with a resilient and skilled workforce. Through partnerships with local employers, we have thousands of placements in sectors such as banking and engineering, helping people to achieve new qualifications and build rewarding careers,” the minister added.

GBP/USD reaction

GBP/USD came under renewed bearish pressure and gave up 1.2500 on the mixed UK employment data. The pair is trading 0.29% lower on the day at 1.2492, as of writing.

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD ticks lower following the release of FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar found some near-term demand following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, with the EUR/USD pair currently piercing the 1.1750 threshold. The document showed officials are still willing to trim interest rates. Meanwhile, thinned holiday trading keeps major pairs confined to familiar levels.

GBP/USD remains sub- 1.3500, remains in the red

The GBP/USD lost traction early in the American session, maintaining the sour tone and trading around 1.3460 following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Trading conditions remain thin ahead of the New Year holiday, limiting the pair's volatility.

Gold stable above $4,350 as the year comes to an end

Gold price got to recover some modest ground on Tuesday, holding on to intraday gains and changing hands at $4,360 a troy ounce in the American afternoon. The bright metal showed no reaction to the release of the FOMC December meeting minutes.

Ethereum: ETH holds above $2,900 despite rising selling activity

Ethereum (ETH) held the $2,900 level despite seeing increased selling pressure over the past week. The Exchange Netflow metric showed deposits outweighed withdrawals by about 400K ETH. The high value suggests rising selling activity amid the holiday season.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).