UK GDP on track to surprise BoE to upside in Q1 – TD Securities

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Analysts at TD Securities assess the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the UK.

Quarterly GDP on track to surprise the MPC to the upside

"UK GDP rose 0.1% m/m in February, following an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m expansion in January. While both hospital and food services fell sharply, as we expected, a notable 6.5% m/m surge in “land transport services and transport services via pipelines” coupled with a 1.5% m/m rise in telecommunications were enough to drive up services 0.1% m/m. Moreover, a sharp 1.2% m/m increase in manufacturing output also helped drive the upside surprise, largely on the back of transport equipment, which rose by 3.7% m/m."

"Overall, the better than projected increase in February together with a 0.1ppts upside revision to the January data leaves quarterly GDP on track to surprise the MPC to the upside in Q1 (BoE: 0.1% q/q)."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD looks firm well above 1.1600

EUR/USD picked up a bid on Monday, pushing up toward the 1.1650 area in response to fresh weakness around the US Dollar, all following President Trump threats to escalate tariffs on eight European countries opposing his proposal to take Greenland. With US stock and bond markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, liquidity is likely to be thin.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3400 and above

GBP/USD found its footing after a soft start to the week, edging slightly above 1.3400 on Monday. The Btitish Pound benefits from a weaker Greenback, as markets react to President Trump’s latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland.

Gold targets $4,700 on broad USD selling

Gold attracts strong buying interest at the start of the week, surging to a fresh record high near $4,700 per troy ounce. Markets turned more cautious after US President Trump threatened tariffs on eight European countries opposing his plan to acquire Greenland, a shift that helped support the precious metal.

Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe in a freefall, echoing Bitcoin’s drop

Meme coins, such as Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe, extend the decline from last week, with a roughly 3% drop on Monday. The meme coins trade below the crucial moving averages, aiming for the immediate support to potentially reset the momentum.

When tariffs become ammunition and capital becomes the battlefield

Markets opened the week like a risk engine hitting a pothole at speed. Equities stepped back, gold vaulted to fresh highs, Treasuries caught a bid, and the dollar, outside of havens, took on a soft bid. This was not a data-driven wobble or a valuation purge.