UK: Focus on inflation and retail sales this week - BBH

Analysts at BBH suggest that the UK will report January inflation and retail sales figures this week and will be in focus.  

Key Quotes

“The UK's headline CPI is expected to fall 0.6%, but this is mostly seasonal.  The year-over-year rate may have slipped to 2.9% from 3.0%.  CPIH, the new preferred measure for statistical purposes, may have risen to 2.8% from 2.7%.”

“Retail sales are likely to have improved from the Scrooge-like 1.6% decline in retail sales in December, excluding auto fuel.  A modest increase coupled with the base effect (January 2017 retail sales fell 0.5%) will lift the year-over-year pace.  Retail sales gradually slowed last year and the average year-over-year pace was about 2%, though in Q4 17 it slowed to 1%.”

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