UK: Election is closer than many expected – RBC CM


Analysts at RBC Capital Markets suggest that this week’s UK election is closer than many expected though bookies are still ~75% priced for a Tory majority.

Key Quotes

“The Electoral Calculus website predicts a 72 seat majority (though also gives a 33% probability that it doesn’t happen at all). Timing-wise, the first result may be clear by 10pm BST with the exit polls. If it is close however, we will have to wait until ~1am for key marginal and ‘target’ seats. Weekend polls ranged from a 11%pt lead for the Tories to just 1%pt. Bottom line a Tory majority is still the most likely outcome but as one electoral tracker put it we are a “normal-sized polling error” away from a Labour majority or hung parliament. The risks to GBP are also asymmetric, given markets are still priced for a Tory victory despite the narrowing race.”

How could the UK general election affect the Forex market?

Conservative victory with Absolute Majority (Scenario 1)

A Conservative victory with an absolute majority should be supportive initially for the pound. Stock markets would be relieved on the lower corporation tax outlook and a risk-on environment could be the expected outcome. However, with a focus on Brexit and PM May's hardline - "No deal is better than a bad deal" - approach to the negotiations, a hard Brexit outlook could equate to a bearish scenario to the pound eventually - (Note: Remain cautious of a 'buy the rumour sell the fact' trade - a Conservative victory is virtually priced in).

Conservative victory without Absolute Majority (Scenario 2)

With the narrowing of the polls and a trend that has been continuing, the possibility of a hung parliament should not be ruled out, (When no party has won enough seats to have a majority in the House of Commons). Such an outcome could be highly bearish for the pound due to the uncertainty for markets to deal with. However, in a hung parliament, the incumbent prime minister stays in office until it is decided who will attempt to form a new government - this could support the pound after an initial sell-off. (Note: A hung parliament does NOT necessarily mean a coalition government).

Laborist victory (Scenario 3)

A balanced outcome for the pound with initial volatility on the basis of Labour’s manifesto. Initially, a lower pound could be the immediate outcome bias due to increased uncertainty and a reduction of inflows. However, a Labour victory should mean a softer Brexit outlook and austerity would be removed, (Fiscal easing lifting growth and inflation expectations). Higher real yields may offset the initial weakness in the pound.

When is the UK general election 2017?

The United Kingdom snap general election is scheduled for June 8, 2017. The election will elect representatives for the 650 districts that make up the House of Commons, the lower house of the British Parliament.

Theresa May Called for UK Snap General Election

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has announced plans to call a snap general election on May 15th. Explaining the decision, Mrs May said:  "So we need a general election and we need one now. We have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD bulls keep the pace up, eye 1.1300

The greenback in sliding in Asia and the euro has extended gains on a strong hourly impulse that started in the early hours of the Nother American session on Tuesday. Concerns over the severity of the omicron virus strain continued to fade which supported riskier asset classes.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD is heading higher in Asia as the US dollar slides to fresh lows

GBP/USD is printing back in the green at 1.32537 after climbing from a low of 1.3231 to a high of 1.3254 in Asia so far. The US dollar is sliding and trades down some 0.11% as measured against six major rival currencies in the DXY index.

GBP/USD News

EUR/USD bulls keep the pace up, eye 1.1300

The greenback in sliding in Asia and the euro has extended gains on a strong hourly impulse that started in the early hours of the Nother American session on Tuesday. Concerns over the severity of the omicron virus strain continued to fade which supported riskier asset classes.

EUR/USD News

Ethereum killer Solana price eyes 25% gains as SOL slows down its retracement

Solana price performance has been falling short of late, especially after the December 4 flash crash. But things could be due for a change as SOL presents a buy opportunity that might get more attractive if trapped bears decide to join the party.

Read more

Cyber Monday 2021 Discounts!

Glued to your trading screen on Cyber Monday? Upgrade your skills by signing up for FXStreet’s Premium service, offered at a discount of up to 50%. Fellow traders have already taken advantage of Black Friday profits. What about you? 

Subscribe now!

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures