Tuesday’s Nasdaq futures playbook: Bounce at 21.315 POC sets stage for 21.557 break
Nasdaq-100 futures (NQM2025) – Combined H4 and 5-min trading playbook
Tuesday, May 20 – Including Monday Recap & Targets Achieved.
1. Monday recap and achieved targets
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H4 Bounce Zone (21,315–21,371 POC/VWAP): Held with two rejections below, confirming value support.
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First Target (21,434): Tested the prior swing high and held as new intra-day support.
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Second Target (21,497): Reached the 38.2% fib of the May 14–16 mini-swing before stalling midday.
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Close: Consolidated between 21,450–21,480 into the NY cut, setting up Tuesday’s play.
2. H4 framework – Medium-term direction
Major Resistance 21,557 - Feb ’25 support now VAH; must clear and hold.
Bullish Threshold 21,616 - 4H close above for next leg up.
Upside Sequence 21,652 → 21,682 → 21,711 → 21,753 → 21,806 - Fib & swing pivots.
Immediate Support - 21,463 H4 23.6% retrace of May 12–16 rally.
Secondary Support - 21,405 H4 38.2% retrace & Monday’s low.
POC / Value Control ~21,357 High-volume node – daily pivot.
VWAP (H4 Band Mid) ~21,154 50-period H4 VWAP acting as dynamic anchor.
H4 VAL - 21,014 Value-Area Low – major demand zone.
H4 bullish setup
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Trigger: 4-hour close above 21,557–21,616.
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Entry: Long on a retest of 21,557 as new support or clean break above 21,616.
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Targets: 21,652 → 21,682 → 21,711 → 21,753 → 21,806.
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Stop: Below 21,463.
H4 bearish setup
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Trigger: 4-hour break below 21,405 or rejection back under 21,557.
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Entry: Short on close beneath 21,405 or failure at 21,557.
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Targets: 21,357 → 21,314 → 21,154 → 21,014.
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Stop: Above 21,557.
H4 Bias: Neutral-to-bullish above 21,405; neutral-to-bearish under 21,616.
3. Intraday (5-Min) plan – Tuesday session
Immediate Resistance 21,480–21,497 - Monday’s high & 38.2% fib.
21,552 fib of May 14 swing & VAH line.
Immediate Support 21,434 - Monday’s swing high now support.
21,371 Daily POC mid-band & VWAP control point.
21,315 POC low & key micro-value anchor.
21,169 VWAP mid-line (green).
Bullish intraday scenarios
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Hold & Bounce 21,371–21,315
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Entry: Long on 5-min rejection of this zone with close back above 21,371.
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Targets: 21,434 → 21,497 → 21,552.
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Stop: Below 21,300.
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Break & Reclaim 21,497–21,552 Band
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Entry: Long on 5-min close above 21,497.
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Targets: 21,552 → 21,631 → 21,806 (H4 target).
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Stop: 21,450.
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Bearish Intraday Scenarios
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Fail at 21,480–21,497
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Entry: Short on reversal candle into the resistance band.
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Targets: 21,434 → 21,371 → 21,315.
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Stop: Above 21,520.
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Break Below 21,315 (POC/VWAP)
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Entry: Short on 5-min close beneath POC.
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Targets: 21,169 → 21,154 → 21,014.
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Stop: Above 21,350.
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4. Execution and risk management
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Position Sizing: Risk ≤1% of account per trade.
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Volume Confirmation: Favour entries aligned with volume spikes at key pivots.
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Alerts: Set alarms at 21,315 / 21,371 / 21,434 / 21,497 / 21,557.
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Context Switch: If price breaches 21,806 (H4) or drops below 21,014 (H4 VAL), adjust to a broader swing-bias.
Remain patient—let price confirm key pivots before pulling the trigger. Always manage risk with a defined stop-loss and position sizing. This is not financial advice. Good luck!
Author
Denis Joeli Fatiaki
Independent Analyst
Denis Joeli Fatiaki possesses over a decade of extensive experience as a multi-asset trader and Market Strategist.
