TRY: Yet again in trouble – Nordea Markets

Morten Lund, analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that the Turkish lira is yet again in trouble as it plummeted around 5% intra-day against the USD last Friday, reminding investors of just how fragile the currency still is after last year’s bloodbath.

Key Quotes

“The crash was in our view to a large extent driven by comments from President Erdogan, who slammed FX analysts for “misleading predictions” on foreign exchange rates, which in turn spread fear amongst market participants that Erdogan could once again direct his focus towards the TRY and the central bank’s doing.”

“If, however, President Erdogan is right and FX analysts really are the drivers behind the TRY’s sluggish performance, then we are guilty as well and have been so for a while.”

“In sum, we do not see many TRY-positive arguments in the current environment – neither from a domestic nor an external perspective. We expect the Turkish economy to keep struggling in the coming quarters and with unusually elevated uncertainty about the inflation outlook, we see a high risk that the CBRT may move too early. Therefore, we keep our negative view on the TRY in both the short and long run, with a decent risk probability of the TRY weakening more than forward.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD struggling at the lows ahead of US GDP

EUR/USD is trading below 1.1150, consolidating its losses. Markets are stalling ahead of the all-important US GDP report which carries high expectations. Some suspect a "sell the fact" response in reaction to an OK number.


GBP/USD trades around 1.2900 amid the Brexit impasse

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2900, recovering the lost ground after hitting two-month lows. The Brexit impasse weighs as the main parties have not made progress. The anticipation to US GDP limits movements.


USD/JPY: waiting for US Q1 GDP

Japanese data was mixed, with Tokyo inflation up but factory output collapsing. US advanced Q1 GDP foreseen up by 2.1% vs. the previous quarter 2.2%.


US First Quarter GDP Preview: Reasons to be cheerful

US economic growth forecast to be stable in the first quarter. Improved consumer attitudes and retail sales give reason for optimism. Labor market key to economic growth.

Read more

Gold climbs to 1-1/2 week tops, back above $1280 level ahead of US GDP

Gold edged higher on the last trading day of the week and jumped back above $1280 level, just above over one-week tops set in the previous session.

Gold News