TRY: Central Bank of Turkey delivers larger-than-expected rate reduction – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) surprised markets with a 150bp cut to the policy rate, lowering it to 38% as headline inflation for November came in better than expected, ING's FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes.

Future Turkish rate moves to remain data-dependent

"At the last rate-setting meeting of this year, the Central Bank of Turkey delivered a larger rate cut of 150bp in comparison to the more cautious 100bp reduction at the October MPC. This followed a better-than-expected reading on headline inflation for November. The consensus was evenly balanced between 100bp and 150bp ahead of the meeting. The move pushes the policy rate down to 38% from 39.5% while the interest corridor remains unchanged at 450bp."

"While the bank emphasised that future rate decisions will remain data-driven and assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis, it provided little clarity regarding near-term rate actions."

"In this context, inflation expectations, the outcome of the 2026 minimum wage negotiations, and the anticipated adjustment to automatic tax rates – promised by Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek – will be key for the outlook, alongside considerations regarding dollarisation and reserve levels, in our view."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

160.00: USD/JPY back near intervention territory after upbeat US jobs report

US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations by a wide margin in May, with 172K jobs added. The US Dollar rebounds after the release, helping USD/JPY recover from its intraday lows. Warnings from Japanese authorities continue to limit upside potential near the 160.00 threshold.

Gold declines to new 10-week low below $4,400

Gold (XAU/USD) stays under heavy bearish pressure in the American session on Friday and remains on track to end the week deep in negative territory. After the data from the US showed Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 172K in May, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield and the US Dollar Index rose sharply, dragging XAU/USD to its weakest level snce late March below $4,400.

Cardano hits five-year low even as Hoskinson clarifies "break" isn't an exit

Cardano (ADA) price is down 10% at press time on Friday, extending losses over 30% so far this week amid Charles Hoskinson's clarification that "break" isn't an exit.

Week ahead – Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks

Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting approaches as key US inflation data could reshape expectations. Oil prices remain elevated as US-Iran talks continue; tariffs also return to the spotlight. ECB is expected to hike; will it be a one-off move or is July live?

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.