Trade wars are the dominant force - Westpac

Ross J Burland FXStreet

Analysts at Westpac explained that the market concern about a potential trade war resurfaced in response to President Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on a further $100bn of imports from China, which sparked more anger from Chinese officials.

Key Quotes:

"This seemed to be the dominant force for equities, with the employment report not a game-changer for the outlook.

US non-farm payrolls rose by 103k in March (vs 185k expected), compounded by a net -50k in revisions. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% (vs 4.0% expected). But hourly earnings rose 0.3% (as expected and versus just 0.1% in Feb) for a 2.7% annual pace. Weather may have been a factor, and there surely was some payback from the outsized 326k gain in February.

Fed chairman Powell reiterated the Fed’s gradual path of tightening, noting risks to the economy were balanced. Current San Francisco Fed president and soon to be NY Fed president Williams supported three to four hikes in total this year, expecting inflation to exceed 2% during the next few years. Chicago dove Evans endorsed the gradual rate hike path."

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD holds gains above 1.3150, US PCE inflation data looms

The GBP/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3175 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid UK political instability and rising expectations of US interest rate hikes this year. Traders await the US May Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data on Thursday for fresh impetus.

EUR/USD softens to near 1.1350 as Fed hike bets rise ahead of PCE inflation data

The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1355 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Euro weakens to its lowest level since June 2025 against the US Dollar as traders increase their bets on US interest rate hikes later this year. The US May Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data will be the highlight on Thursday.

Gold: Impending Death Cross hints at more downside

Gold is heading back toward seven-month lows near $3,950 early Thursday. The US Dollar enters bullish consolidation amid Fed rate hike bets, conflicting US-Iran messages. Gold could see further declines as RSI flirts with oversold territory, eyes on impending Death Cross.

Bitcoin tests $60,000 as whales sell off – Aave and Jupiter show resilience

The broader cryptocurrency market remains under intense selling pressure, with Bitcoin back at $60,000 for the third time this year. On-chain data shows selling pressure from large-wallet investors, commonly referred to as whales, while total liquidations hit nearly $1 billion in 24 hours.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.