Economists at Natixis analyze the impacts of the lack of a fall in the oil price on inflation.
What slowdown in disinflation due to OPEC's new behaviour?
“OPEC countries have reduced their oil production in 2023 to stabilise the price. We estimate that the reduction in OPEC's oil production is 5 million barrels per day in 2023, compared with OPEC’s past behaviour, which was much less responsive to falling oil prices.”
“According to our estimates, this reduction in OPEC production leads to an increase in the oil price of 30 dollars per barrel, i.e. a 54% increase in the oil price. And lastly, the additional headline inflation generated by this rise in the oil price in 2023 can be estimated at: 0.81 percentage points in the US; 0.70 percentage points in the Eurozone.”
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