Tesla Stock News and Forecast: TSLA gets help from China but needs more from the Fed

Update: TSLA stock is having an up-and-down start to the regular trading session on Tuesday, quoting almost flat at the time of this update (14.45 GMT, 75 since the Wall Street open.) Positive news crossed the wires from Shanghai, as local authorities in the Chinese economic capital helped re-opened Tesla's giga-factory after covid citywide lockdowns, while a report on billionaires pitching to Elon Musk the Twitter acquisition also has supported TSLA stock. Most equity traders are positioning ahead of tomorrow's crucial Federal Reserve meeting, with a big interest rate hike already priced in but forward guidance from Jerome Powell and the FOMC very much expected for further hints on monetary policy. Tesla, like most tech stocks, is a risk-on asset that will need some kind of dovish message to return to bullish mode.

Prior Update: News just in from a Reuters report says that Tesla received help from Shanghai authorities to help Tesla reopen its Giga Shanghai factory. A letter seen by Reuters claimed to be from Tesla says that Shanghai authorities helped transport 6,000 workers to the factory and that authorities also helped to disinfect the plant. TSLA stock is trading at $906.45, up 0.5% in Tuesday's premarket.

Tesla (TSLA) stock recovered a decent bit of ground on Monday as the US equity indices staged a late recovery to move higher. The Nasdaq was the big winner closing up 1.7% but naturally, Tesla being high beta, outperformed that and settled nearly 4% higher. The stock remains well below recent levels but may be set for a comeback as sentiment reaches extremely bearish levels, meaning a countertrend rally could be set to unfold this week.

That is once we get through the Fed's interest rate decision.

However, with most participants either short or neutral we expect something of a positioning rally Tuesday and Wednesday as investors rebalance from overly bearish positions. Yes, the Fed will hike 50bps but the market has this well priced in. The risk-reward is for a less than hawkish commentary and a strong equity market rally. The bad news and overly hawkish commentary are expected. Anything even slightly more accomodating will see a rush back to equities.

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Tech is one of the most beaten-down sectors so it will stand to have the strongest rally. Don't say you haven't been warned. 

Tesla (TSLA) stock news: Billionaires pitching Twitter deal

Some interesting news over the weekend from an article in the Wall Street Journal. The paper reports that a group of billionaires has been urging Elon Musk to go ahead and purchase Twitter (TWTR). The Wall Street Journal reported cited a group including some former Paypal execs, of which Mr. Musk is one and Peter Thiel another one. It is not clear if this influenced Mr. Musk in any way and he does always appear to be very definite in his own views and motives. 

Twitter (TWTR) stock news: Musk reducing margin loan financing?

TWTR stock also traded higher on Monday as it appears Elon Musk is in talks to reduce his collateral on the Twitter deal. It was revealed last week that Elon Musk had to put down a large stake of his Tesla holdings as collateral, but a Reuters report suggested he is in talks with Apollo Global Management (APO) and Ares Management (ARES) to reduce the margin loan element of his Twitter financing.

This should naturally help relieve the pressure on Tesla stock and was partly the reason for Monday's strong rally. Both Apollo and Ares are private equity firms. 

Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast: Potential for short-term bounce

Very little of note to comment on here compared with last week. TSLA stock price remains in a medium-term downtrend but we have some potential for a short-term bounce. $975 is the key resistance.

Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, daily

Below is the 15-minute chart, showing more detail on a short-term basis. Witness the large volume gap from $920 to $975, so a move above $920 should then accelerate quickly to fill this gap.

Tesla (TSLA) stock chart, 15 minute

*The author is short Tesla.